From Book to the Big Screen: 2011's Adapted Screenplays

Just like any other year, 2011 brings many books and plays - popular or obscure - to the big screen.
Let's take a look.

 

 

 

The King's Speech becomes frontrunner for Oscar.

It's officially safe to make changes to your Oscar predictions. After sweeping the Guilds - Weinstein Company's Oscar-hopeful The King's Speech knocked out the critical awards darling The Social Network.

The King's Speech recently won Best Film by the Producers Guild, Best Director of the Year by The Director's Guild and now has won Best Actor (Colin Firth) and Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Not uncommon for races to change gears when getting down to the final days of Oscar - The King's Speech was once considered the more obvious Academy fodder but was exchanged by many to The Social Network after that film enjoyed a clean-sweep throughout the precursors. However, it looks like the King has dethroned Facebook. Adjust ballot accordingly and win your pool!

The King's Speech seals the deal: Tom Hooper wins Best Director

British filmmaker (newbie) Tom Hooper won the prestigious Director's Guild award (think: Directing Branch of Academy) for his work on The King's Speech. Hooper has been in rotation all year attending screenings, Q&A's, awards shows, and festivals promoting his Weinstein produced film.

What's all this mean?

It means: The Social Network was the critical darling of the year but the Academy members prefer The King's Speech. There's only been two occasions in the past 10 years where the Director's Guild winner didn't win the Oscar: 2000's Ang Lee for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (the Oscar went to Steven Soderbergh for Traffic) and 2002's Rob Marshall for Chicago (the Oscar went to Roman Polanski for The Pianist) there's still a good chance that David Fincher could sneak in and win what's deservedly (agree?) his... but there's still a very good chance that the Academy will allow Hooper to upset for a film they've clearly preferred.

With this win and the recent triumph at the Producers Guild (where it won Best Film of the Year) look for Oscar night to be devoted to The King's Speech. If it were to win Best Ensemble Film from the Screen Actors Guild (airing tonight on TNT) it's a done deal.

RULE OF THUMB: Always, always ALWAYS remember that Critics DO NOT vote for Oscars.

5 Favorite Movies of 2010

I wanted to attempt to make one of these things before the first month of the new year ran out!
But there were still some movies from 2010 that I hadn't seen yet. Now that I've basically seen 85% at least of the year - I feel confident enough in making this list.

 #5 - Buried (directed by Rodrigo Cortes)

Buried was one of those movies that I watched in theaters on the edge of my seat the entire way through. I wasn't sure what the outcome would be, I wasn't sure if there's be a twist, I knew nothing - and I felt like I couldn't escape. More-so than Black Swan - this was just the most intense movie for me of 2010. I wanted to include a film that was intense and I was torn between this, Black Swan and Restrepo. I ultimately went with Buried because it was the movie whose intensity level surprised me the most. Ryan Reynolds also was a bit of a surprise, I like the guy, but I've not ever claimed to think he was actually an a amazing actor and here he showed a ton of potential. He's basically the entire film and for 94 minutes he keeps you completely engaged. Not for the squeamish - but Buried offers a lot of drama and thrills. Even for this jaded film-goer!

#4 - The Other Guys (directed by Adam McKay)

I'm not a huge fan of comedies. I'll be the first to admit - I prefer my dramas, my period pieces, my foreign languages and my indies - so count me as pleasantly surprised when I sat down to The Other Guys and walked away with one of the best theatrical experiences of my life. I had never laughed so hard and smiled so much. Sometimes you know a movie is great when you are constantly recommending it to people - and this has been the case for The Other Guys. I know a lot of people like Will Ferrell (never been a fan before) but I consider his performance here as one of the truly funniest screen performances I've seen since Christopher Guest in 1997's Waiting for Guffman.

#3 - Animal Kingdom (directed by David Michod)

Animal Kingdom is a film without a safety net. I can't remember the last time I watched a movie full of characters I couldn't trust at all. Nothing in this film feels cushioned or safe, it's aptly titled since you feel like you are being hunted by these criminals. You are prey to the amazing screenplay and directing by David Michod. The film should be seen spoiler-free as its last half really kicks you in the stomach as the stakes are raised to a degree in which you feel no one can pay up to. The film does take its time, it's a little slow, but I appreciated it. Filled with mostly unknown (to Americans anyway) Australian actors - there's not a weak link in the entire cast. Everyone brings their A-game to this little crime drama. Now, I know it's not the most original screenplay in the entire world (lots of mafioso cliches) but there was just something riveting about it nevertheless.

#2 - Please Give (directed by Nicole Hilofcener)

Please Give had to make it to my list because it's a movie that frustrated me like no other. I absolutely wanted to smack almost every character in this movie more than once. The reaction I had to it was like a knee-jerk reaction. I could see their selfish, self-serving, pretentious behavior and interactions with one another and it was just so isolating and cold. The humor in the film comes with a cost. It's always at the expense of someone else - someone dying, someone dead, someone with a lot of pain. It's similar in many ways to the brilliant The Social Network. This is not for a hand-to-mouth popcorn crowd and that makes it even more infuriating. The film almost seems elite (which I think is intentional.) However, for months, after seeing it - I was unable to shake it off. I wasn't able to forget these awful people. And I began to see their humanity and my own flaws within them. And that's what great movies do.

 #1 - Somewhere (directed by Sofia Coppola)

 I'm a huge fan of Coppola's breakout film Lost in Translation - it's actually probably one of my all-time favorite films. There's not a lot of differences here with Somewhere - but it's almost like she remade the film but added so much more emotional weight into it and somehow made a better version of an already amazing film? Weird, yes, but let me try to explain. Somewhere has this very odd melancholic over/undertone that dug into my brain as just a general reason of why I am even interested in Hollywood, actors, movies - it has an emotional resonance - as someone who grew up with Stephen Dorff when he was an It boy and then watched his career sink and fail ... I don't know what it was. That's the thing about Sofia Coppola's style, you're not sure what exactly you're loving or how she's even able to get in there and stir your emotions but I had a very strong emotional reaction to this movie and the funny thing was that I expected to but had kind of cast off interest in it after it failed to make a splash throughout the awards circuit. This may be considered a misfire at first glance (I saw it three times before it hit me) but it might just be that kind of brilliant masterpiece that people slowly start to discover over the years after the fact and really learn to appreciate and value. I can only imagine my love for this film increasing as time goes on.

Honorable Mentions:

David Fincher's The Social Network (amazing movie with amazing writing and cast.)

Darren Aronofsky's Black Swan (brutal (but also beautiful looking) horror-style film-making with a rapturous performance by Portman.)

*I just feel sort of burnt out by these movies.


FIVE OF THE WORST FILMS I SAW IN 2010:
(I don't want to blurb these as no more of my time should be spent on them. They're crap, they're awful, avoid them unless you just want to see how offensively bad they are.)

01. Alice in Wonderland
02. Robin Hood
03. The Tourist
04. Love and Other Drugs
05. Catfish

What Are the Big Stars doing in 2011?

2-Time Oscar winner Tom Hanks is pairing up with Oscar winner Julia Roberts in the mid-life crisis comedy Larry Crowne  (watch for Golden Globes to follow.) It's being distributed theatrically by Universal Pictures who have a good track record with big-name awards. Another good reason to take heed is Tom Hanks is writing and directing the film himself. Something the Academy adores.

Oscar winners Matt Damon, Kate Winslet, Marion Cotillard and Gwyneth Paltrow are starring in Oscar winner Steven Soderbergh's thriller Contagion, distributed by awards Gods Warner Bros. Soderbergh turned back to his independent film roots (apart from those dreadful Oceans movies) after winning his 2000 Oscar for Traffic but this seems to be a good way for them to allow him back in.

This September, you'll get to see Brad Pitt team up with Capote director Bennett Miller in the Aaron Sorkin scripted Moneyball opposite Oscar-winner Philip Seymour Hoffman. Pitt will portray real life Oakland Athletics manager Billy Beane (Oscar loves their real people!) Is this Pitt's career-win Blind Side? Or is it another Any Given Sunday? This seems like an easy money-maker appealing to both sports fans, Pitt fans and awards-seekers.

Oscar's favorite loser Meryl Streep aims for her seventeenth nomination as The Iron Lady, or British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Streep gets to do a real person again (which she's amazing at) an accent (which she's amazing at) and British royalty (which Oscar loves.) This could very well be the right time and right role for her long-awaited (and long overdue)  third win. Expect the film to garner nominations in Make Up and attention for the female director, Phyllidia Lloyd who is a household name among those familiar with Opera (i.e., British Academy and Academy Awards voters.)

A Closer Look at Best Actress

Natalie Portman - Black Swan 

(Second Nomination: Previously nominated as Best Supporting Actress in 2004's Closer)

There's not much reason to look closer at Best Actress as Natalie Portman has the wonderful fortune of basically having reign over the category. Her performance in the maddening Black Swan has resonated with critics, audiences and awards groups alike and this young actress (who has been working forever) finally delivers an iconic role as Nina - a ballerina who goes to desperate lengths for perfection. Portman luckily couldn't have been anymore perfect in the role. Glance over the other contenders (some predict a Bening "career-win", I still don't think they love her) but let Portman be your main focus.

Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right

(Fourth Nomination: Previously nominated as Best Actress in 2004's Being Julia and 1999's American Beauty and as Best Supporting Actress in 1990's The Grifters)

  Annette Bening is Oscar royalty. She's married to Warren Beatty and she's even like the Governor or something of the Acting Branch. She is always fantastic and got career-best reviews in The Kids Are All Right and was able to take everything she's great at (bitchiness, neurotic, motherly) and combine it all in one giant critically acclaimed performance. She would be a major threat to win in any other year but the thing with Bening has always been: bad timing. This year all eyes are on Natalie Portman.

Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine

(Second Nomination: Previously nominated as Best Supporting Actress in 2005's Brokeback Mountain) 

  Blue Valentine was a movie you heard about all damn year. Its famous war with the MPAA after they slapped it with an NC-17 rating kept it in the news - but the real story was the staggering work of its actors Oscar nominees Michelle Williams & Ryan Gosling. This is a nomination that confirms the Academy has taken notice of Williams work over the years. She's been a consistently strong and reliable source of acting mastery in smaller little-seen indie films and this is their way of saying, "We approve." Williams is arguably the best performance of the bunch but I don't think she'll be able to dethrone the Swan Queen so better luck next time (and there will be a next time, Williams is starring in an upcoming film as freakin' Marilyn Monroe.)

Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole

(Third Nomination: Previously won for Best Actress in 2002's The Hours and nominated as Best Actress in 2001's Moulin Rouge!)

Nicole Kidman is an acting legend. She's got the same respect as many of our great actors and actresses have. Yet, the Academy has oddly failed to notice her over and over as this is only her third nomination in a career that should have already received six, seven, you get the picture. But finally, finally Kidman was noticed again for her amazing performance in Rabbit Hole as a woman unable to let go of the death of her child. Already a winner, Kidman is there to enjoy the ride of being recognized and she has the least shot at winning this.

Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone

(This is Jennifer Lawrence's first Academy Award nomination.)

Jennifer Lawrence is a Kentucky native (represent!) who blew onto the Sundance scene in the icy Winter's Bone as Ree Dolly, a young girl who has to search for her missing father in order to save her family. Lawrence gives the most quiet performance of the five women nominated but shows a steely reserve that the Academy cannot resist amongst Best Actress nominees. I'm not sure what to think of her post-Oscar career just yet because she's already making bad choices (starring in X-Men franchise!) But hey, so did Ellen Page and she's still considered someone to watch out for.

WHO YOU SHOULD VOTE FOR IN YOUR OSCAR POOL:

Natalie Portman. There's no other option. 

The Year of Michael Fassbender?

Michael Fassbender is a German-Irish actor who blew onto the scenes in 2008 for his no-holds-barred performance as Irish republican hunger striker Bobby Sands in the art film Hunger. The director Steve McQueen sucked up most of the buzz winning critics awards and the Golden Camera from Cannes - but Fassbender got a lot of work (and a lot of respect) after the fact. You may remember him from Quentin Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds (the insider Archie Hicox from the tavern scene) and as Burke in the bomb Jonah Hex.

(Fassbender with Oscar-nominee Keira Knightley in A Dangerous Method)

Fassbender makes good on the Hunger promise in 2011 showing up in the classic role of Rochester in Focus Features Oscar hopeful Jane Eyre and as psychoanalysis Carl Jung in legendary weirdo director David Cronenberg’s A Dangerous Method opposite Oscar-nominees Viggo Mortensen (who’s playing Sigmund Freud!) and Keira Knightley (as the woman who comes between them.)

Cronenberg is known for causing Oscar buzz - Mortensen received a well-earned 2007 Best Actor nomination for Eastern Promises and William Hurt was a surprise nominee for his minor work in the excellent A History of Violence in 2005. Keep an eye out for all three of the main cast of A Dangerous Method (Fassbender, Knightley, and Mortensen) as this looks like it will be a very interesting movie. C'mon, it's Jung vs. Freud! Get excited!

The bad news is that the film is being produced by Recorded Picture Company, a small British company that hasn't had Oscar gold since 1987's The Last Emperor. Is this the year they return?

Check out Viggo Mortensen who is nearly unrecognizable as Freud!

Oscar Nominee David Fincher Hires Oscar Nominees to Score "Dragon"

The Academy shunned the Swedish crime films on Tuesday which opened the door for them to celebrate the American remake from their new favorite filmmaker David Fincher (nominated for 2008's The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and poised to win this year for The Social Network.) On January 26, it was confirmed that composers of Network, Nine Inch Nails front-man Trent Reznor and his writing partner Atticus Ross will also be scoring Fincher's The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo set to his theaters December 21, 2011 right in time for Oscar season! 

Reznor has been someone Fincher has been a fan of before - you may remember he used a remix of his 90's hit "Closer" during the opening credits of his break-out 1995 thriller Seven. Reznor and Ross both are set to take home the Oscar for their weird and stylish score for The Social Network this February.
You may hear their names again if their score is anywhere as cool, interesting and inventive as their most recent work.

 

Portman's Post-Oscar Work Isn't Too Embarrassing

A LOOK AT...

OSCAR FORECAST:

SUNNY SKIES WITH NO CHANCE OF OSCARS.

There seems to be a trend among Best Actress winners. They'll win an Oscar and then follow it up with some craptastic movie that makes you resent they ever won. Or maybe that's just how I see it.

But Natalie Portman's post-Swan move appeared to be a mistake on the outside (starring alongside Ashton Kutcher!? Are we being Punk'D?) but I was pleasantly surprised watching No Strings Attached.

Currently the #1 film in America, No Strings Attached is definitely a formulaic romantic comedy that capitalizes on the current trend of sex humor. In one weekend it almost made back its entire budget as horny audiences piled in to see how dirty Kutcher & Portman get. Guilty!

Portman portrays Emma, an intelligent woman who gets involved with Adam (Kutcher) an intelligent man who decide they're going to have a strictly physical (friends with benefits) relationship and of course that doesn't happen as one becomes more emotionally involved than the other. I was shocked to learn that Portman served as an executive producer on the film and I think in the end it's what saved it. The film plays with sex and sexuality but doesn't really get too raunchy - which actually makes the question of "Can a friends-with-benefits really work?" actually worth pondering. That's better than sitting through the film and being subjected to sex scene after sex scene with beautiful actors as characters we could care less about (see Love and Other Drugs) here we actually begin liking both Adam & Emma and hoping for the best for them which is the primary ambition for all romantic comedies. It's what you pay for. Portman is notorious for being specific about what parts of herself (literally) she'll show on screen and what's better left for the imagination and it's this type of confidence and caution that makes the character of Emma even more appealing and someone you can relate to.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of all - is Ashton Kutcher. I've never seen That 70's Show so I can't rate his TV acting but I've never enjoyed any of his film work. I truly did enjoy him here. I found his character to be charming, funny, frustrating and sweet. Kutcher seemed to take the limitations of the screenplay and elevated the character of Adam just enough to stay within the safety of pop-corn but also present enough of a character that you can become involved in the story. I expected just to see Kutcher get to make out with Portman - but got much more and I was happy about that. I also really liked his haircut, which is a definite plus! Portman & Kutcher are also nicely supported by an up-and-coming cast of actors (Greta Gerwig, Lake Bell, Olivia Thirby) who aren't household names yet but are on the path to becoming ones you'll someday learn.

At the end of the day, it's not a movie you're going to be astonished with due to its amazing writing or realism in acting - but it's something fun and cute enough to sit back and enjoy without too many strings attached. Viva La Pun!

FRUGAL RATING:
I WOULDN'T SPEND MORE THAN $7 TO SEE NO STRINGS ATTACHED.

Sidenote:  

Natalie Portman stars in the Don Roos drama The Other Woman currently playing on IFC Demand and in theaters Feb. 4. Later in the year, she will be starring as a princess bride in Your Highness and in token damsel role opposite Aussie-Haute Chris Hemsworth in the Marvel big-screen extravaganza of Thor!

If you enjoyed Ashton Kutcher in Valentine's Day, well see him again on New Year's Eve which he will be starring in later this year. Another Gary Marshall confection in which he makes A-list celebrities look like shallow opportunists!

A Closer Look at Best Supporting Actress

Often considered "The Wife, Mother and Girlfriend" category, the Academy doesn't change that up too much again this year.

Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech

(Second Nomination: Previously nominated for Best Actress in 1997's The Wings of the Dove)

 

 Helena Bonham Carter had a good year. This is sometimes helpful when in an Oscar race. Don't be fooled, Carter's minimal work in The King's Speech isn't the only reason her name was called on nomination morning. She was in two other box-office smashes Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 and Alice in Wonderland. They just picked the more Oscar-friendly one (ask 2005's Catherine Keener who was nominated for Capote but had also starred in The 40-Year-Old Virgin.) As a fan of Carter, this is my polite way of saying she rode the coattails of her co-stars. It's also helpful to play British royalty as this seems to be something the Academy thoroughly enjoys. To be totally honest, I don't know why she's nominated here and I don't think she has a shot in hell of winning.

Melissa Leo - The Fighter

(Second Nomination: Previously nominated as Best Actress in 2008's Frozen River)

 

 Melissa Leo gave a scene-stealing performance in 2003's 21 Grams (and had minor Oscar buzz) and has been rocking steady ever since. 2008 was her breakthrough year in the smash (by Sundance standards) hit Frozen River in which she picked up a Best Actress mention. This year she was unrecognizable in David O. Russell's The Fighter as a hostile mother of nine children complete with hormonal bleach-blond hair hive. Expect Leo to win here, it's a performance that the Academy often loves (scenery-chewing, wild and raw) in Supporting Actress and she has a good start by winning the Golden Globe and Critics Choice award. It helps that she's also in a Best Picture finalist that has many passionate fans. However, do know that if any category loves going off the map - it's this one. So it's never 100% ... unless you're Mo'Nique.

 Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit

(This is Hailee Steinfeld's first Academy Award nomination.)

Ignoring the obvious category fraud, Hailee Steinfeld fills the flavor-of-the-month quota that often is a big success in Supporting Actress. She seemingly came out of nowhere, beat out a bazillion girls, was cast in a high-profile movie directed by fan favorites; The Coen Bros. And she's only fourteen. The Academy resists embracing young men (go ask little Freddie Highmore) but continue to adore talented little girls. I found the performance to be less than spectacular but my bias doesn't prevent me from considering her a threat for upsetting Leo. And after a surprising show of support for True Grit (10 nominations!) You shouldn't either.

Amy Adams - The Fighter

(Third Nomination: Previously Nominated as Best Supporting Actress in 2005's Junebug and 2008's Doubt) 

 

Amy Adams is a hard-working actress everyone loves to love and has built a solid rapport with Academy members as this makes the third time she's been recognized in a five year period. Here, she's included for going against type in a performance that takes her typical sweet demeanor (2005's Junebug, 2008's Doubt) and replaces it with a hard edge stacked with nudity and several F-bombs. Don't count on her to win especially when she's competing against a fellow cast-mate who steals most of the scenes she's in. Always a barmaid and never a bride? As I fear Adams is the kind of actress that Academy does enjoy - but doesn't exactly envision as an Oscar winner. Is she the next Renee Zellweger or the next Julianne Moore? Either way, she hasn't found her Cold Mountain just yet.

Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom

(This is Jacki Weaver's first Academy Award nomination.)

The Academy loves to show their ability to look beyond big-names and often embrace smaller films. This is to the great advantage of Australian veteran Jacki Weaver who exploded with critical acclaim for her performance as a shady grandma in a family of criminals. Weaver spends the first half of the film deceptively planting seeds in your memory and rises in the final moments with harrowing confirmation of any evil you may have feared. Grandma, what big secrets you have! The better to rip your world apart with, my dear. Electrifying stuff, but the nomination is the prize.

WHO YOU SHOULD VOTE FOR IN YOUR OSCAR POOL:

Ask the audience and narrow it down between Melissa Leo and Hailee Steinfeld.
Then phone-a-friend who saw The Fighter and pick Melissa Leo.

Who Precursors Threw Under the Bus

Armie Hammer - The Social Network

 You may have heard how Natalie Portman trained for a year to complete her ballerina moves - but did you know Armie Hammer trained for 10 months in twin boot camp to make his double-roles seem natural and realistic? He was so good at it half the world was unaware that the Winklevoss twins were even played by one actor.  (And the film wasn’t even considered as a finalist for visual F/X!)
Gimmick aside, Hammer was delightful in the roles as the obliviously arrogant "Gentlemen of Harvard" and stole every scene he/they was/were in. Luckily, the industry took notice as Hammer has been cast opposite Leonardo DiCaprio in a high-profile J. Edgar Hoover biopic directed by Academy favorite Clint Eastwood. This is very good news for Hammer's post-Network career. So get ready to see more of him.

Lesley Manville - Another Year

Lesley Manville has been plucking away in Mike Leigh films for years. Out of all of his actors and actresses, she’s the one who he’s cast the most. However, Manville was never given an opportunity for a leading role until Another Year. And man did she make the most of it. After winning the National Board of Review for Best Actress many assumed she’d be a strong contender in this season’s races - but she dropped off soon after. What happened? No one really knows. Some blame category confusion as Another Year is a classic ensemble film so maybe people weren’t sure which category to vote for her (Supporting or Leading.) (I blame Leigh fatigue.) Either way, Manville’s performance as Mary a lonely drunk who is her own worst enemy should be enjoyed by film buffs for years.

Vincent Cassel - Black Swan

 Audiences gasped as Cassel instructs Natalie Portman to go home and “touch herself.” This is the type of reaction Cassel has been causing in foreign language films for more than a decade. His sly, almost devilish but always sexy screen presence has been the highlight of many movies. And in Black Swan he was finally able to reach a wider audience. But the critics groups and awards circuit shut the door in his face. Particularly painful this year as he was absolutely incredible in the 4+ hour Mesrine biopic.
While his work in Swan was not his best, it would have been a pleasant way to recognize this wonderful gem of an actor. Maybe next time!

A Closer Look at Best Supporting Actor

The first thing you notice when looking at the Academy’s choices for Best Supporting Actor this year is their embracing of actors whom they’ve not recognized before.

  Jeremy Renner - The Town

(Second Nomination: Previously nominated as Best Actor in 2009's The Hurt Locker)

 

Jeremy Renner is new blood. He was nominated last year for his exhilarating performance as a bomb detonator in the Oscar-winning The Hurt Locker. It was the type of acting that the Academy is extremely fond of and he channeled the same energy as a loyal-to-a-fault bank-robber in The Town. While it's not got enough traction to upset (Renner is the film's only nomination) Renner is definitely an actor on his way to winning an Oscar at some point. Just not this year.

Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech

(Fourth Nomination: Previously won Best Actor in 1996's Shine and was nominated

as Best Supporting Actor in 1998's Shakespeare in Love and Best Actor in 2000's Quills)

 

Geoffrey Rush's performance in The King's Speech is the kind of role they've been nominating for decades. Yes, he's great in the well-written part but face it, it's not a huge leap for the actor and it's the kind of role that keeps one of the five seats warmed all year. All you have to do is read a synopsis of the film to know that whichever actor playing the part will be nominated. Since this is already so predetermined, it's also the kind of role that could upset and win (see Michael Caine in 1999). If they like you enough to include you for whatever, no matter what, they don't mind giving you another prize to confirm it. Unless you're Meryl Streep.

Christian Bale - The Fighter

(This is Christian Bale's first Academy Award nomination.)

But luckily Rush's competitor is a "serious actor" and that takes priority. Christian Bale has been in the business for more than twenty years but has not ever really had a performance that was Academy-friendly. He's gathered a reputation for being a severely method actor which always hums "Oscar, Oscar" it's just a matter of timing. This is the right time as Bale is the front-runner winning almost every prize under the sun. Only a fool would go against him in their Oscar pool.

Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right

(This is Mark Ruffalo's first Academy Award nomination.)

 Mark Ruffalo had a break-out role in 2000’s You Can Count On Me and received lots of well-earned Oscar buzz but was ultimately looked over by the Academy.  In many ways, his nomination for “The Kids Are All Right” is an apology for their error as the role is not a huge stretch for the actor. Ruffalo has picked up some critical prizes for his performance as a laid-back sperm donor but he basically has zero shot of winning.

John Hawkes - Winter's Bone

(This is John Hawkes' first Academy Award nomination.)

 John Hawkes rounds out the category as the token nominee who has "paid dues." Despite a long career in bit roles and TV shows, nobody really knows who he is except his peers and this is their way of keeping his spirits afloat. He gives an edgy performance in Winter's Bone that the Academy adores (particularly in this category) as a possible Meth-abuser who warns his niece with verbal and physical threats against seeking out her missing father. The nomination is certainly the award here as it takes a critical sweep with more attention to actually be an unknown and win.

WHO YOU SHOULD VOTE FOR IN AN OSCAR POOL: 
I'd say put all your money on Christian Bale and rest comfortably.