A Closer Look at Best Supporting Actor

The first thing you notice when looking at the Academy’s choices for Best Supporting Actor this year is their embracing of actors whom they’ve not recognized before.

  Jeremy Renner - The Town

(Second Nomination: Previously nominated as Best Actor in 2009's The Hurt Locker)

 

Jeremy Renner is new blood. He was nominated last year for his exhilarating performance as a bomb detonator in the Oscar-winning The Hurt Locker. It was the type of acting that the Academy is extremely fond of and he channeled the same energy as a loyal-to-a-fault bank-robber in The Town. While it's not got enough traction to upset (Renner is the film's only nomination) Renner is definitely an actor on his way to winning an Oscar at some point. Just not this year.

Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech

(Fourth Nomination: Previously won Best Actor in 1996's Shine and was nominated

as Best Supporting Actor in 1998's Shakespeare in Love and Best Actor in 2000's Quills)

 

Geoffrey Rush's performance in The King's Speech is the kind of role they've been nominating for decades. Yes, he's great in the well-written part but face it, it's not a huge leap for the actor and it's the kind of role that keeps one of the five seats warmed all year. All you have to do is read a synopsis of the film to know that whichever actor playing the part will be nominated. Since this is already so predetermined, it's also the kind of role that could upset and win (see Michael Caine in 1999). If they like you enough to include you for whatever, no matter what, they don't mind giving you another prize to confirm it. Unless you're Meryl Streep.

Christian Bale - The Fighter

(This is Christian Bale's first Academy Award nomination.)

But luckily Rush's competitor is a "serious actor" and that takes priority. Christian Bale has been in the business for more than twenty years but has not ever really had a performance that was Academy-friendly. He's gathered a reputation for being a severely method actor which always hums "Oscar, Oscar" it's just a matter of timing. This is the right time as Bale is the front-runner winning almost every prize under the sun. Only a fool would go against him in their Oscar pool.

Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right

(This is Mark Ruffalo's first Academy Award nomination.)

 Mark Ruffalo had a break-out role in 2000’s You Can Count On Me and received lots of well-earned Oscar buzz but was ultimately looked over by the Academy.  In many ways, his nomination for “The Kids Are All Right” is an apology for their error as the role is not a huge stretch for the actor. Ruffalo has picked up some critical prizes for his performance as a laid-back sperm donor but he basically has zero shot of winning.

John Hawkes - Winter's Bone

(This is John Hawkes' first Academy Award nomination.)

 John Hawkes rounds out the category as the token nominee who has "paid dues." Despite a long career in bit roles and TV shows, nobody really knows who he is except his peers and this is their way of keeping his spirits afloat. He gives an edgy performance in Winter's Bone that the Academy adores (particularly in this category) as a possible Meth-abuser who warns his niece with verbal and physical threats against seeking out her missing father. The nomination is certainly the award here as it takes a critical sweep with more attention to actually be an unknown and win.

WHO YOU SHOULD VOTE FOR IN AN OSCAR POOL: 
I'd say put all your money on Christian Bale and rest comfortably.