British filmmaker (newbie) Tom Hooper won the prestigious Director's Guild award (think: Directing Branch of Academy) for his work on The King's Speech. Hooper has been in rotation all year attending screenings, Q&A's, awards shows, and festivals promoting his Weinstein produced film.
What's all this mean?
It means: The Social Network was the critical darling of the year but the Academy members prefer The King's Speech. There's only been two occasions in the past 10 years where the Director's Guild winner didn't win the Oscar: 2000's Ang Lee for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (the Oscar went to Steven Soderbergh for Traffic) and 2002's Rob Marshall for Chicago (the Oscar went to Roman Polanski for The Pianist) there's still a good chance that David Fincher could sneak in and win what's deservedly (agree?) his... but there's still a very good chance that the Academy will allow Hooper to upset for a film they've clearly preferred.
With this win and the recent triumph at the Producers Guild (where it won Best Film of the Year) look for Oscar night to be devoted to The King's Speech. If it were to win Best Ensemble Film from the Screen Actors Guild (airing tonight on TNT) it's a done deal.
RULE OF THUMB: Always, always ALWAYS remember that Critics DO NOT vote for Oscars.
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